The Myth of Targeting Small, But Loyal Niche Audiences: Double-Jeopardy Effects In Digital-Media Consumption

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Figure 1
Percentage Reach of Top 2,000 Domains in the United States

Table 1

Correlation of U.S. Total Unique Visitors versus Average Pages Viewed

Statistic	Overall	Head	Tail	Lifestyle	Sports	News
Average	.2667	.5050	.0481	.0345	.2856	.1173
SD	.024	.148	.158	.192	.239	.164
Min	.238	.142	−.013	−.052	−.016	.043
Max	.309	.5948	.551	.644	.903	.637
n	2,000	350	1,650	150	46	272

Table 2

Correlation of U.S. Total Unique Visitors versus Average Time Spent

Statistic	Overall	Head	Tail	Lifestyle	Sports	News
Average	.3213	.5478	.0155	.0080	.2509	.1468
SD	.016	.034	.011	.023	.129	.051
Min	.302	.472	−.0003	−.019	.074	.078
Max	.360	.598	.037	.052	.409	.2219
n	2,000	350	1,650	150	46	272

Table 3

Correlation of Total Unique Visitors versus Average Visits per Visitor

Statistic	Overall	Head	Tail	Lifestyle	Sports	News
Average	.3716^**	.62415^**	.1234^**	.0008^**	.1871^**	.1173^**
SD	.014	.013	.225	.035	.051	.052
Min	.344	.603	.002	−.040	.0688	.035
Max	.4077	.644	.605	.071	.2339	.232
n	2,000	350	1,650	150	46	272

Table 4

Regression Models to Explain Double Jeopardy in Long Tail with Log Average per Viewer as the Dependent Variable

Statistic	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 4
Statistic	β	T	β	T	β	T	β	T
Unique (log)	.191^**	24.89	.203^**	26.65	.205^**	26.85	.033^**	5.85
News			−.198^**	−24.05	−.199^**	−24.10	−.227^**	−37.28
Lifestyle			−.128	−12.02	−.128^**	−12.02	−.089^**	−11.33
Sports			.058	3.14	.057	3.10	−.131^**	−9.48
Months					^†	^†	^†	^†
Visits (root)							.504^**	140.72
Control
Intercept	0.315^**	12.21	0.310^**	12.17	0.301^**	10.96	0.063^**	3.23
Adjusted R²	.025		.052		.053		.482

Note: N = 24,000. The dependent variable is the logarithm of average total pages viewed in millions.
↵† After adding monthly data as an independent variable, the author found that there were no significant effects on beta values of the independent variables and controls.
↵** p < .01.

Table 5

Regression Models to Explain Double Jeopardy in Long Tail with Log Average Time Spent as the Dependent Variable

Statistic	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 4
Statistic	β	T	β	T	β	T	β	T
Unique (log)	.262**	33.07	.264**	33.27	.266**	33.49	.083**	14.23
News			−.084**	−9.82	−.084**	−9.87	−.115**	−18.60
Lifestyle			−.125**	−11.28	−.125**	−11.28	−.084**	−10.43
Sports			.167**	8.61	.166**	8.57	−.035**	−2.47
Months					^†	^†	^†	^†
Visits (root)							.536**	147.14
Control
Intercept	−.052*	−1.98	−.040	−1.51	−.058	−2.05	−.309*	−14.83
Adjusted R²	.043		.055		.056		.503

Note. N = 24,000. The dependent variable is the logarithm of average total minutes in millions.
↵† After adding monthly data as an independent variable, the author found that there were no significant effects on beta values.
*p < .05. **p < .01.

Table 8

Users and Usage of Specific Sites

Website	Genre	% Reach	Average Minutes	Average Visits	Average Views
Facebook	Social media	80	113	22	226
Yahoo	Portal	63	303	3	132
CNN	News	43	31	5	11
New York Times	News	31	4	2	13
ESPN	Sports	22	12	3	28
Major League Baseball	Sports	13	5	2	17
Slate	News	6	4	2	3
NBA	Sports	4	6	2	7
Breitbart News	News	2	7	2	18
FIFA	Sports	2	18	2	9
PGA Tour	Sports	1	4	2	10
Mother Jones	News	1	3	4	3
RealClearPolitics	News	1	3	2	13
Baidu	Search engine	0.9	41	6	27
UOL	Portal	0.3	73	3	47
Mail.ru	Portal	0.7	37	17	15
Hotstar	Portal	0.2	112	3	68
Average	–	15.9	45.6	4.8	38.1

Table 9

Duplication of Viewing

Website	Reach (%)	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
1. Yahoo	63.0		47	36	31	17	7	3	2	2	2	2	2	0	0
2. CNN*	42.1	71		43	33	18	9	4	2	2	2	2	2	0	0
3. The New York Times	29.9	75	61		35	21	12	5	3	2	3	3	3	1	1
4. ESPN	26.4	73	53	40		32	10	5	4	3	4	3	3	1	1
5. Major League Baseball	14.7	74	53	43	58		11	6	5	4	6	4	4	1	1
6. Slate	5.7	79	69	64	48	27		8	7	2	5	7	5	2	2
7. Breitbart News	2.3	81	67	63	54	41	20		8	4	9	8	12	6	3
8. FiveThirtyEight	1.5	79	62	64	73	46	27	13		10	10	10	8	1	4
9. FIFA	1.5	63	49	38	54	36	8	6	10		4	3	3	1	4
10. PGA Tour	1.5	79	69	55	72	63	21	14	10	5		7	7	3	4
11. Mother Jones	1.4	80	71	71	53	39	30	13	11	4	8		14	3	5
12. RealClearPolitics	1.2	80	71	66	61	45	25	23	10	3	9	16		4	5
13. Infowars	0.3	73	60	58	69	60	33	51	8	6	18	12	19		14
14. U.S. Tennis Association	0.3	81	74	75	69	60	42	28	22	25	20	29	22	15
Average	13.7	76	62	55	55	39	20	14	8	5	8	8	8	3	3

Note: Columns 1–14 represent the horizontal (row) percentage—that is, the percentage of visitors who visited a website (in rows) who also visited the corresponding website in the column. The bottom row is the average of each column.