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ABSTRACT
Americans love videos. Last year, consumers spent $17.4 billion on videos, renting 3 billion and buying 700 million (VSDA, 2000). Predicting video revenue is critical, because it accounts for 55 percent of gross studio revenue, more than box-office, pay-per-view, and television revenue combined (VSDA, 1998). How early can video revenue be accurately predicted? Several early indicators are tested: first and second weeks' theatrical revenues, fall-off, opening screens, advertising, genre, and critics' ratings. Two models are developed to predict rental and sell-through video revenue with 86 percent accuracy on average by the second week of a movie's release.
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