PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Elise K. Prosser
TI  - How Early Can Video Revenue Be Accurately Predicted
AID  - 10.2501/JAR-42-2-47-55
DP  - 2002 Mar 01
TA  - Journal of Advertising Research
PG  - 47--55
VI  - 42
IP  - 2
4099  - http://www.journalofadvertisingresearch.com/content/42/2/47.short
4100  - http://www.journalofadvertisingresearch.com/content/42/2/47.full
SO  - J Advert Res2002 Mar 01; 42
AB  - Americans love videos. Last year, consumers spent $17.4 billion on videos, renting 3 billion and buying 700 million (VSDA, 2000). Predicting video revenue is critical, because it accounts for 55 percent of gross studio revenue, more than box-office, pay-per-view, and television revenue combined (VSDA, 1998). How early can video revenue be accurately predicted? Several early indicators are tested: first and second weeks' theatrical revenues, fall-off, opening screens, advertising, genre, and critics' ratings. Two models are developed to predict rental and sell-through video revenue with 86 percent accuracy on average by the second week of a movie's release.