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When Brands Go Dark

Examining Sales Trends when Brands Stop Broad-Reach Advertising for Long Periods

Nicole Hartnett, Adam Gelzinis, Virginia Beal, Rachel Kennedy, Byron Sharp
DOI: 10.2501/JAR-2021-009 Published 1 September 2021
Nicole Hartnett
Ehrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science, University of South Australia,
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  • For correspondence: Nicole.Hartnett@marketingscience.info
Adam Gelzinis
Endeavour Group,
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  • For correspondence: adam.gelzinis@edg.com.au
Virginia Beal
Ehrenberg-Bass Institute, University of South Australia,
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  • For correspondence: Virginia.Beal@marketingscience.info
Rachel Kennedy
Ehrenberg-Bass Institute, University of South Australia,
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  • For correspondence: rachel.kennedy@marketingscience.info
Byron Sharp
Ehrenberg-Bass Institute, University of South Australia,
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  • For correspondence: Byron.Sharp@marketingscience.info
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  • Figure 1
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    Figure 1

    Indexed Sales (All Cases) of Brands Stopping Advertising

    Note: This chart omits one value in the “prior” year that is greater than 200 (374).

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    Figure 2

    Mean Sales Index by Brand Size

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    Figure 3

    Mean Sales Index by Previous Sales Trajectory

Tables

  • Figures
  • Table 1

    Zero-Weight Advertising Tests with Significant Changes in Sales Effects

    StudyNo. of Tests% Significant (and p)Sales Difference
    Lodish et al. (1995)6236 (<0.2)– 23% (Volume)
    Riskey (1997)2357– 15% (Volume)
    Hu et al. (2007)4663a (<0.05)—
    Hu et al. (2009)2741a (<0.05)—
    • Note:

    • ↵a This statistic was not reported in the published articles; the authors provided it on request.

  • Table 2

    Cases of Advertising Stops

    Years without Advertising12345678910
    Number of cases573417121166421
  • Table 3

    Mean Sales Index for All Cases

    VariablePrevious YearBase YearNumber of Years without Advertising
    12345678910
    Number of cases  57  57573417  12  11    6    6    4    2    1
    Mean sales index113100847564  46  42  37  32  28  29  34
    Standard deviation  53    0335042  30  24  25  23  18    7—
    % Declininga——536271100100100100100100100
    • ↵a Cases with an index of 90 or less relative to the last advertised year were classified as declining after cessation.

  • VariableTotalNumber of Years without Advertising
    12345678910
    All cases57573417121166421
    Brand size
    Large171712  6  5  533321
    Medium171711  6  3  333100
    Small232311  5  4  300000
    Sales trajectory
    Growing181811  3  3  300000
    Stable191911  8  5  544321
    Declining202012  6  4  322100
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Vol 61 Issue 3

Journal of Advertising Research: 61 (3)
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When Brands Go Dark
Nicole Hartnett, Adam Gelzinis, Virginia Beal, Rachel Kennedy, Byron Sharp
Journal of Advertising Research Sep 2021, 61 (3) 247-259; DOI: 10.2501/JAR-2021-009

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When Brands Go Dark
Nicole Hartnett, Adam Gelzinis, Virginia Beal, Rachel Kennedy, Byron Sharp
Journal of Advertising Research Sep 2021, 61 (3) 247-259; DOI: 10.2501/JAR-2021-009
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    • Abstract
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